Record International Student Numbers in the US in 2024/25, but Commencements Show a Sharp Decline

The United States has reached an all-time high in international student enrolments in the 2024/25 academic year, but beneath this headline achievement lies a more troubling reality. New student commencements have fallen substantially, graduate-level interest is weakening, and visa and political uncertainties are reshaping student demand.

According to the Institute of International Education’s (IIE) 2025 Open Doors Report, the total number of international students in the US, including those in Optional Practical Training (OPT), rose to 1,177,766, a +5% year-over-year increase and the highest ever recorded. This follows a strong +7% growth in 2023/24, showing sustained momentum in international education.

However, the latest data also shows that while overall enrolments are increasing, commencements are declining, signalling potential future challenges for US higher education institutions.

Overall Enrolments Rise — Driven by OPT

The record number of international students was fuelled primarily by a +21% surge in US Optional Practical Training (OPT) participation, bringing the total to 294,253, the largest number ever. OPT now accounts for 25% of all international students in the US, highlighting growing reliance on the work programme by both students and institutions.

Undergraduate vs Graduate Trends

• Undergraduate enrolments grew by +4% to 357,231, marking the first significant post-pandemic recovery at the bachelor’s level.
  
  
• Graduate enrolments, however, fell by -3% to 488,481, ending three consecutive years of strong growth.

This downward shift in graduate numbers is significant because international graduate students have historically been the backbone of US research productivity and STEM talent pipelines.

Commencements Decline Despite Overall Growth

While total enrolments rose, new international student commencements fell by -7% in 2024/25, dropping to 277,118 students. The decline was uneven across levels:

• Undergraduate commencements: +5% increase
  
  
• Graduate commencements: -15% decline

This steep drop in graduate commencements is one of the most concerning trends, as it suggests that the US’s reputation for research excellence and postgraduate opportunities may be losing competitiveness internationally.

Why are commencements falling?

Earlier projections warned of an even sharper decline, but the final numbers, though significant, are somewhat less severe than feared. Several factors have contributed:

1. Visa disruptions

US Department of State data shows:

• F-1 visa issuances dropped by more than -14% YoY (Jan–May 2025).
  
  
• A 3–4 week pause in visa appointment scheduling occurred during the peak processing period (May–August).

This bottleneck directly affected students’ ability to begin studies on time.

2. Political uncertainty under the Trump administration

Students are closely watching policy debates on:

• US–China academic relations
  
  
• Potential visa restrictions
  
  
• Research funding cuts
  
  
• Withdrawal from global research collaborations

Tensions between the administration and leading US universities (e.g., Harvard) may be discouraging prospective graduate students, particularly those pursuing research-intensive programmes.

3. Growing global competition

Countries like Canada, the UK, Australia, Germany, and Japan have introduced aggressive recruitment strategies and clearer post-study pathways, making the international market more competitive than ever.

India Holds the Top Spot for the Second Consecutive Year

India remains the leading source of international students in the US, sending 363,019 students in 2024/25, a strong +10% increase following a massive +23% surge the previous year.

Top Sending Countries (2024/25)

1. India – 363,019 (+10%)
   
   
2. China – 265,919 (-4%)
   
   
3. South Korea
   
   
4. Canada
   
   
5. Vietnam (moved from #6 to #5)
   
   
6. Nepal (jumped from #10 to #6)

Twelve countries sent their highest-ever student numbers, including:

• Bangladesh
  
  
• Canada
  
  
• Colombia
  
  
• Ghana
  
  
• Italy
  
  
• Nepal
  
  
• Nigeria
  
  
• Pakistan
  
  
• Peru
  
  
• Spain
  
  
• Vietnam

Major growth markets included:

• Nepal (+49%)
  
  
• Ghana (+36.5%)
  
  
• Vietnam (+26%)
  
  
• Pakistan (+20%)

This diversification signals a shift away from China-centric dependency.

Fall 2025 Snapshot: Enrolment Decline Widens

IIE’s Fall 2025 Snapshot survey, based on responses from 825+ institutions, shows that the downward trend in commencements is intensifying.

Key findings:

• Total international students: -1% decline
  
  
• Undergraduate students: +2% growth
  
  
• Graduate students: -12% decline
  
  
• Commencements: -17% decline

Participating institutions reported:

• 57% – decrease in new international enrolments
  
  
• 29% – increase
  
  
• 14% – stable

Deferrals on the rise

Due to uncertainty during Trump’s second term:

• 72% of institutions are offering deferrals to Spring 2026
  
  
• 56% are offering deferrals to Fall 2026

Universities are using deferrals to keep students in the pipeline amid political unpredictability.

Long-Term Trends Paint a Concerning Picture

Experts warn that the surface-level rise in enrolments hides deeper structural weaknesses.

Chris Glass (Boston College) notes:

“Ten years that could have created a resilient talent strategy instead produced a system dependent on volatile elements: one country, one field, one degree level, one policy.”

He highlights several structural risks:

• Heavy dependence on India
  
  
• Overreliance on STEM and graduate programmes
  
  
• Increasing dependence on OPT to boost numbers
  
  
• A lack of a national strategy compared with competitors

OPT has doubled over a decade

• 10 years ago: 16% of international students were in OPT
  
  
• Today: 25% – 1 in 4 students are no longer studying but working

This means:

• True enrolments have been declining for years
  
  
• OPT growth has masked falling academic participation

Economic Contribution Declines for the First Time Since COVID

Despite record numbers, the economic impact of international students fell by -2% in 2024/25.

Key Economic Figures

• Total contribution: US$42.9 billion
  
  
• Jobs supported: 355,000+
  

NAFSA report 2025 analysis:

• US$1.1 billion decline in fall 2025
• 23,000 jobs lost

Several factors, such as reduced commencements, visa issues, and political uncertainty, contributed to this decline.

A Precarious Future

Dr Fanta Aw, CEO of NAFSA, emphasises:

“The pipeline of global talent in the United States is in a precarious position. Other countries are creating effective incentives to capitalise on our mistakes.”

She warns that without policy reform, clearer pathways, and more international student-friendly measures, the US risks losing its long-standing position as the top global study destination.

Conclusion

The US remains the world’s most popular study destination, but the 2025 data reveal a mixed story. Record enrolments signal enduring global demand for US degrees, but sharply declining commencements point to emerging vulnerabilities.

If political uncertainty, visa disruptions, and a lack of coordinated national strategy persist, the US could struggle to sustain its competitive edge, especially as other nations adopt more attractive policies to lure international talent.