Trump-Era Policies Trigger Fall in International Student Numbers, US Universities Adjust to New Reality

US colleges and universities are facing unprecedented challenges as international student enrolment drops sharply under Trump-era immigration policies. Recent data shows F-1 visa approvals fell by 12% between January and April 2025, followed by a 22% decline in May. Experts now warn that June could see a staggering 90% fall, threatening $7 billion in revenue losses and more than 60,000 local jobs in higher education hubs.

US Colleges Under Pressure

The sharp fall in foreign student enrolment has hit institutions across the country, particularly small public universities, regional colleges, and private schools with modest endowments. For many of these institutions, international students in the US are critical not only for cultural diversity but also for financial survival.

Unlike domestic students, who often receive state-funded aid or tuition discounts, international students pay full fees, often exceeding $80,000 annually. This revenue helps cross-subsidise scholarships, campus programmes, and operational costs that benefit the wider student community.

The University of Central Missouri illustrates the crisis. International students once made up nearly a third of its student body, but visa restrictions and stricter immigration rules have halved this intake. The result: budget cuts, delayed campus projects, and reduced staff salary increments.

Over 100 US colleges where international students comprise more than 20% of enrolments are reporting similar financial strain, showing the systemic impact of this policy-driven decline.

Policy Meets Economics

The enrolment decline is directly tied to Trump-era policies, including stricter visa screening, travel bans, and enhanced vetting procedures. These measures have disrupted international student recruitment cycles and created uncertainty for families abroad considering study in the US.

According to NAFSA’s economic impact model, this downturn could cost the country nearly $7 billion in lost tuition revenue, threaten over 60,000 jobs in college towns, and undermine the US’s global standing in higher education, research, and innovation.

Roger Best, president of the University of Missouri, noted: “We aren’t able to subsidise domestic students as much when we have fewer international students bringing in revenue.”

US Higher Education Outlook

The timing could not be worse. Domestic enrolment is already shrinking due to demographic changes, with the number of US high school graduates projected to decline by 13% by 2041. Add to that rising operating costs, the aftermath of the pandemic, and competition from online learning, and the absence of international students leaves a massive gap in university budgets.

As George Mason University professor Justin Gest explained, “When an international student pays $80,000 a year in tuition, that gives universities the flexibility to offer lower fees and more scholarship opportunities for American students. Without that, the entire financial model collapses.”

Global Shifts in Student Mobility

The decline in international students in the US has opened doors for other countries. Nations like Germany, Canada, and the UK are positioning themselves as attractive alternatives, offering clearer visa pathways and strong post-study work opportunities. Germany, for instance, has already reported a surge in international student enrolments.

In response, some US colleges are launching online degree programmes aimed at overseas students, while others are broadening recruitment efforts to regions less affected by US immigration policies.

A Defining Moment for US Higher Education

What began as a policy shift has now exposed the deeper vulnerabilities of the US higher education system, its heavy reliance on international tuition revenue and a shrinking domestic pipeline. The fall 2025 enrolment numbers will serve as a critical indicator of whether American universities can weather this storm or risk ceding ground in the increasingly competitive global education market.