US Student Housing: Enrollment Shifts — China vs. India

In the realm of global higher education, the United States remains a highly esteemed destination, attracting students from every corner of the world. The promise of world-class institutions, diverse cultural experiences, and a path to brighter futures continue to draw international students in record numbers.

Behind the constant influx of students is a fast-expanding market—US student housing. As international enrolments surge, the demand for quality student accommodations has never been higher, presenting a plethora of opportunities and challenges. Understanding these trends is crucial for stakeholders, from investors to university administrators, as they navigate this burgeoning sector.

Here’s a closer look at the current student housing trends and future outlook for international student migration in the US market.

US Student Housing Market Outlook

The rapidly evolving US higher education industry has given rise to a fast-growing accommodation market for students. According to amber’s US International Student Housing Annual Report 2023-24, the US student housing market is currently valued at a staggering $131 billion.

The US market has 8.56 million beds, whereas the PBSA beds portfolio currently comprises 2.8 million beds. Owing to the high demand for housing, the US student housing market maintains a strong occupancy rate of 95% or more.

In 2022-23, as recorded by Berkadia, the US student accommodation market recorded a record-breaking total sales value of $24.61 billion. Moreover, the student housing properties anticipate a total return of 9.5% in the US real estate sector in 2023-28. This marks the attributes of a stellar market in the upcoming years.

Soaring International Enrollment Numbers

For the academic year 2023-24, the total number of international students enrolled in the US reached an impressive 1.09 million. This figure not only highlights the appeal of U.S. higher education but also underscores significant shifts in student demographics.

A key highlight observed in amber’s latest US Student Housing Market Report is India’s remarkable 39% year-over-year growth in student enrollments from 2020 to 2023. As of January 2024, India is closing in on China, traditionally the leading source of international students in the US.

The diversification of the international student population is notable, with increasing numbers from countries such as Nigeria, South Korea, and Vietnam. According to IDP Research 2024, the US is now the most preferred destination for international students. This increase is driven by more welcoming federal immigration policies and improved student mobility from developing economies, especially like India.

US Higher Education: Student Migration Projections

The positive trend in international student numbers is expected to continue, fuelled by growing enrolments from Asian countries and other developing countries. Over the past 20 years, international student enrollment has grown by 84.66%, from 572,509 in 2003 to 1,095,458 in 2023.

Projections from amber’s US International Student Housing Annual Report 2023-24 suggest that international student enrollments will reach 1,132,703 by 2025. This growth trajectory underscores the increasing importance of the US as a global education destination and highlights the opportunities for investment in the student housing sector.

From China to India: Decoding Shift in Enrollment Pattern

In the pre-pandemic era, China was the leading source country for US institutions, with a staggering 370,000 students enrolled, accounting for 35% of total international enrollments. However, the post-pandemic landscape has seen a dramatic shift.

While Chinese enrollments have decreased, Indian student numbers surged to 269,000 in 2023. Additionally, with acceptance rates at top Indian universities dropping as low as 0.2% due to explosive demand, more students are seeking educational opportunities in the US. This change signals a significant transformation in the source countries of international students heading to the US for higher education.

For the past 15 years, China dominated as the top source country for international students in the US. Yet, India has steadily closed the gap, reshaping the international student landscape. Several factors contribute to this shift, reflecting broader socio-economic trends and the evolving geopolitical landscape:

India Takes Lead in the US B-School Arena

Recent student housing trends show a significant shift in the student demographics at top U.S. business schools, with a marked increase in Indian student representation and a corresponding decline in Chinese student numbers.

Indian Student Population

• In 2023, the average Indian student population across 36 of the top 40 business schools rose to 33.7%, up from 28.5% across 26 of the top 40 schools the previous year.
• This reflects a broader trend, with 27 out of these 36 schools reporting Indian students comprising 20% or more of their student body. Notably, 12 schools now have 40% or more Indian students, up from just 9 schools the previous year.
• The University of Washington Foster School of Business and Arizona State Carey School of Business stand out, each reporting a 66% Indian student population. This trend underscores India's growing presence in elite U.S. business programs (U.S. News & World Report - Annual Ranking of Top U.S. Business Schools).

Chinese Student Population

• Conversely, the Chinese student population has seen a decline, dropping to 13.9% across 36 of the top 40 business schools, down from 17.4% across 26 of the top 40 in 2022. Only 8 schools reported more than 20% Chinese students, and just 2 schools had over 40%.
• The University of Wisconsin-Madison Business School had 41% Chinese students, while Washington University in St. Louis Olin Business School led with 93%, highlighting a more concentrated presence at a few institutions.
• These numbers reflect a shifting trend away from Chinese enrollments in U.S. business schools (U.S. News & World Report - Annual Ranking of Top U.S. Business Schools).

Rising Tide: India's Growing Presence Projection in the US (2030)

Projections suggest that the declining trend in Chinese student enrollments will continue until 2030. By the end of the decade, one-third of the international student population in the US is expected to come from India. Indian student enrollment numbers are projected to reach 394,000 by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.7%. In contrast, Chinese student enrollment is expected to decline to 258,000 by 2030, with a negative CAGR of 0.2%.

India achieved a record high in student enrollment numbers, with a remarkable 39% year-over-year growth from 2020 to 2023, and this trend is anticipated to continue in the upcoming years. As observed by ICEF Monitor, a 4.6% compound annual growth rate is projected till 2034, resulting in higher enrolments in coming years. Hence, more students from India are expected to head to the US for better work opportunities.

The Road Ahead for US Student Housing

The US student housing market is experiencing dynamic growth, driven by increasing international student enrollments and significant shifts in the source countries of these students. With India poised to overtake China as the top source country, the landscape of higher education in the US is set for further transformation.

This trend offers promising opportunities for the student housing sector, with rising demand from an increasingly diverse international student population. The evolving dynamics of international student migration underscore the importance of staying informed and prepared to capitalize on emerging trends. For a comprehensive analysis of these student housing trends, refer to the detailed Amber’s US International Student Housing Annual Report 2023-24. Download your report copy below to understand international student migration patterns and much more!

As a leader of data in student housing, amber remains at the forefront of these developments, providing insights and opportunities for investors and stakeholders in this burgeoning market. List with amber and tap into growth opportunities by expanding your portfolio in the US student housing market.