HILDA Maps Domestic Graduate Pay Gap as Visa Rules Tighten
Table of Content
Key Highlights:
- The 21st HILDA Survey report, released by the University of Melbourne on 23rd September 2026, found that field of study drove graduate earnings more than institutional prestige.
- International student numbers in Australia fell 7% to 687,810 in the year to June 2026, with new international students down 8%.
- Over 50% of international graduates at the highest occupational skill level were working in lower-skilled jobs, compared with about 20–30% of domestic graduates.
- The findings came days after the Australian government announced, on 17th September, that the dependants of most student visa holders will no longer be permitted to accompany them.
The 21st Annual Statistical Report of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, released on 23rd September 2026 by the University of Melbourne, showed that the field of study, more than institutional prestige, drove graduate earnings. The findings arrived shortly after the country announced restrictions for dependants of Australian student visa holders to reduce net overseas migration.
The HILDA survey revealed that graduates retained a clear advantage in full-time employment. Between 2001 and 2024, graduates aged 25-44 consistently recorded the highest full-time employment rates, while those who did not complete Year 12 recorded the lowest.
Among women, full-time employment rose across most education groups, including from 53% to 57% for graduates, while those without Year 12 were the exception, remaining at around 25% throughout the period. The data reinforced the labour-market value of completed qualifications.
Men recorded higher rates at every level of education, but graduates were the only group that did not decline, edging up from 84% to 85%. Rates fell from 85% to 78% for men with vocational qualifications, from 77% to 72% for those with Year 12 and from 70% to 63% for those without it.
Where Graduate Earnings Diverge
The report revealed a clear earnings advantage for postgraduates, with women earning around 28% more per week than those with only a Year 12 qualification and men around 31% more.
Notably, the field of study showed the widest differentials. Compared with the report's reference group, medical degrees carried premiums of around 62% for women and 74% for men, followed by Engineering and IT courses at 35% and 29% respectively. Law carried premiums of 32% for women and 34% for men. Management and Commerce showed modest premiums of 8-9% for both sexes.
In order to assess differences by institution, the survey grouped Australian universities into three tiers using the Times Higher Education (THE) and QS World University Rankings 2024. The research-intensive Group of Eight (Go8) formed the top tier, mid-tier universities were non-Go8 institutions ranked in the top 400 of both rankings, and lower-tier universities were those that ranked below 400 in either including smaller, newer or more specialised institutions.
The differences on the basis of institution were quite narrow. Women from Go8 universities earned around 6% more than comparable mid-tier graduates, while the Go8 premium for men rose to around 10% from 2020-2024. The report noted that this may partly reflect the higher share of students from advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds enrolled at Go8 universities.
Male graduates from lower-tier universities earned around 13% less than their mid-tier peers. For women, the estimated penalty was relatively smaller and not statistically significant.
International Enrolments Fall as Graduate Outcomes Lag
These survey findings came at a testing time for Australia's international education sector with student numbers down on several key measures. According to the Department of Education, 687,810 international students studied in Australia in the year to June 2026, down 7% on the same period in 2025. The number of new international students studying in Australia in the first half of 2026 stood at 96,311, down 8% compared with the same period in 2025.
Collectively, China, India, Nepal, Vietnam and Bangladesh accounted for 57% of all international students in the year to June 2026. Management and Commerce was the most popular field in both higher education and vocational education and training (VET). However, this was also the same field that showed one of the smallest premiums in the HILDA survey report.
Half of Skilled International Graduates Work Below Their Level
Beyond recruitment, post-study outcomes remained a key test of Australia's proposition to international students, and long-term data pointed to a persistent gap between permanent residency and skilled employment.
International Students Pathways and Outcomes Study published in September 2025 tracked students who began studying in Australia in 2010-11 through to the end of 2023. Jobs and Skills Australia estimated that about 35-40% of this early-2010s cohort secured permanent residency within 10 years. The share rose to more than half among higher education and VET graduates identifiable in linked tax and employment data.
Over 50% of the international graduates holding qualifications at the highest occupational skill level were working in lower-skilled jobs, compared with about 20-30% of domestic graduates employed below their qualification level. International graduates who continued to stay in Australia were also less likely to find work in their field of study, particularly higher education graduates compared with VET graduates.
New Visa Rules Narrow Access for Students’ Families
Against this backdrop of uneven graduate outcomes, Australia is tightening its temporary migration system further to curb net overseas migration. On 17th September, the government announced a package of reforms under which the dependants of most Australian student visa holders will no longer be permitted to accompany them.
Exemptions cover PhD students, Pacific and ASEAN nationals, students sponsored by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade or the Department of Defence and foreign government scholarship recipients. Students already in Australia with family members attached to their visas are protected by grandfathering provisions intended to prevent families from being separated. The government has not yet announced when the restrictions will take effect or published a full list of exempt courses and cohorts.
The restrictions also extend to families seeking to join later. Once the primary visa is granted, relatives cannot apply as secondary applicants for a Student or Temporary Graduate visa. This applies to all current and future holders, onshore and offshore, including the exempt groups.
This regulatory reform follows the closure of the Graduate Diploma of Management (Learning) to new international students across the entire Commonwealth Register of Institutions and Courses for Overseas Students (CRICOS) system. From 5th October 2026, providers will be barred from issuing new Confirmations of Enrolment for the course, though students who have already started it are allowed to complete it.