International Student Mobility Tilts Towards Asian Hubs

Key Highlights

• Global demand for studying abroad isn’t shrinking, it’s being redistributed. According to UNESCO, internationally mobile students are set to grow from 7.3 million in 2023 to 9 million by 2030, even as the Big Four’s combined share is projected to drop.
• Policy landscape is driving the shift away from traditional destinations not student appetite. Total UK study visa applications between January and September 2026 fell by 19.7% YoY, while Australia’s offshore higher education visa applications were 43% lower in September.
• Asian hubs are building capacity to absorb this redirected student demand. Hong Kong raised its non-local student cap to 50% from AY 2026-27, South Korea passed its 300,000-student target a year early and Malaysia is targeting 250,000 by 2030.
• For the Purpose-Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) sector, the opportunity is moving as secondary Big Four cities face oversupply risk, while fast-growing Asian hubs have far less purpose-built supply.

According to UNESCO’s first Higher Education Global Trends Report, published in May 2026, the number of internationally mobile students has more than tripled since the turn of the century, reaching 7.3 million in 2023. This figure is projected to climb to 9 million by 2030.

Nonetheless, access to study abroad remains shaped by socio-economic, political, institutional and personal factors. Student mobility is further dictated by factors including but not limited to visa policies, tuition costs, recognition of qualifications and geopolitical trends.

Recent data from IDP Education’s Emerging Futures survey of more than 4,800 students across 106 countries and regions was conducted between August and September 2026 showed that more than 7% of students were considering more than 5 countries while planning to go abroad for higher education. The survey also found that only 19% of the students were considering a single country, down 15 percentage points from 34% in 2024. Students are comparing more destinations before choosing one, which leaves established destinations more exposed to policy shocks. Hence the rising prominence of new destination countries captures outbound mobility flows beyond the traditional hubs.

China and India Dominate Outbound Mobility

UNESCO data highlighted that East Asia and the Pacific was the largest sending region in 2023, accounting for 26% of outbound students. South and West Asia followed with 21%, ahead of Western Europe and North America at 14%.

At the country level, the 10 largest source countries together accounted for 45% of the world’s outbound internationally mobile students in 2023. Within that group, China held 37% and India stood second with 29%, together making up roughly two-thirds. Nigeria and Germany followed with 5% each while Vietnam, Uzbekistan, the United States, France, Pakistan and Nepal contributed 4% each.

More Asian Students Are Staying Within Continent

In East Asia, the number of students studying within the region is growing faster than the number travelling outside it. China sits at the centre of this shift as both the world’s largest source of outbound students and the main host country within East Asia and the Pacific.

The shift is also noted in Chinese students increasingly choosing nearby regional destinations as opposed to the previously prevalent Big Four. UNESCO Institute for Statistics data show that the number of Chinese students studying in Hong Kong and South Korea increased by 82% and 17%, respectively, between 2018 and 2023. Malaysia recorded a massive 273% surge between 2019 and 2023, while Thailand saw a 59% rise in Chinese students between 2020 and 2023. However, in absolute terms, these numbers are much lower in comparison to the volumes recorded in the UK or the US but are on a steady upward trajectory.

Figures from an independent administrative institution under the Ministry of Education, Japan Student Services Organization (JASSO) revealed that the country hosted 131,097 Chinese students as of 1st May 2025, up 6.2% from 123,485 a year earlier. Collectively, these trends point to a larger role that Asian destinations are now playing in student choices and emerging destinations are combining policy support, capacity increases and academic stature to be best placed to capture this demand.

Big Four Curbs Realign Student Mobility

Across the traditional Big Four namely, the UK, US, Canada and Australia, caps on new enrolments, higher financial requirements and visa fees, changes in post-study work window, restrictions on dependant visas and tougher institutional compliance standards have contributed to a gradual realignment in student mobility patterns.

Market research firm BONARD’s UK PBSA Report 2026 projects that this realignment will continue with the Big Four’s combined share of globally mobile students gradually declining from 58% in AY 2023-24 to 54% in AY 2025-26 and to 50% by AY 2026-27.

amberRadar’s analysis of UK Home Office data showed that study visa clearances for main applicants (excluding dependants) between January and September 2026 was 19.7% below the 377,400 recorded over the same period in 2025. The decline has eased through the year, from an average monthly fall of 34.4% year-on-year (YoY) between January and May to less than 20% in each month since June. Volumes nonetheless have remained below 2025 levels, keeping the UK within the wider realignment witnessed across the Big Four.

In its Budget on 28th October 2026, the UK government announced an extension of the Graduate visa from 18 months to 2 years for graduates of high-compliance universities with strong labour market outcomes. The Budget has neither defined how “high-compliance” will be classified across universities nor when the change will take effect. The extension arrives alongside the previously announced cut from 2 years to 18 months, which takes effect in January 2027.

Australia is undergoing a similar realignment but on a sharper trajectory. Data from the country's Department of Home Affairs showed that visa applications from students residing outside Australia were 43% lower in September 2026 than a year earlier, while offshore higher education visa grants fell 42% YoY.

The aforementioned IDP survey also revealed that 51% of prospective and applied students said visa approval probability strongly influenced their choice of destination, while nearly 47% of applied students weighed their chances of visa success before or during destination shortlisting.

The Shifting Balance of Global University Rankings

Currently, Oxford holds first place in Times Higher Education's (THE) World University Rankings. It has held this spot for a record 11th consecutive year, but its lead over MIT is just 0.1 points, a slim margin suggesting that the positions of established universities may witness a rejig.

The top 10 spots remain entirely with the US and the UK. Princeton and Stanford shared third place, while Cambridge dropped to fifth from a joint third rank and Harvard slipped to sixth from joint fifth.

Beyond the top 10, both countries lost ground:

• UK: 25 universities were in the top 200, 1 lesser than the previous year. Of these, 12 moved up the rankings, 3 held their position and 10 fell.
• US: 53 universities were in the top 200, a record low count; one-third moved up and 46% fell.

THE also noted that across anglophone countries, where English is the primary language, institutional credibility is cushioning declines on other metrics, including research quality. For instance, UK universities declined on all three income measures but strong reputations are what keep the sector near the top.

Asia’s Ascent: International Relations, Repute and Policy

Asia’s top-ranked institution, Tsinghua University, moved ahead of Switzerland’s ETH Zurich to take 11th position, narrowly missing the top 10. This put the highest-ranked Asian university above the highest-ranked in continental Europe for the first time ever. THE attributed the rise to a larger share of international academic staff and students while global co-authorship held it back. Peking University, in 13th place, also showed a similar pattern.

With the National University of Singapore (NUS) moving up 2 places to the 15th spot, Asia had 3 universities in the top 15 for the first time. Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Singapore rose from joint 31st to 28th position indicating gains in academic reputation.

China has 17 universities in the top 200, up from 13 where it had stalled since the 2024 edition. Of these, 71% saw improvement from their previously held positions.

This time Universiti Malaya became the first Malaysian university to enter the top 200, at joint 194th spot. The government’s push to position the country as a global higher education hub in the region and hiring international staff to facilitate this has played a crucial role.

While Western universities continue to hold the leading position, Asian institutions are emerging as credible options in the next tier. The margin between the West and Asia is gradually narrowing. THE scored the US and the UK higher on international metrics while China, Singapore and Hong Kong performed better on industry metrics, particularly income.

TNE Gives Students Another Route to a Foreign Degree

Transnational Education (TNE) across Central Asia is also changing as countries such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan use international branch campuses to ramp up higher education capacity. Chinese universities are a growing part of that landscape. Liaoning Normal University opened a branch campus for up to 2,000 students in Khiva, Uzbekistan in August 2026.

As part of these streamlining efforts, China's Ministry of Education approved 219 new TNE partnerships at undergraduate level and above in May 2026; UK universities dominate these approvals. These initiatives point to a wider effort to scale international education within China, strengthening domestic higher education capacity while keeping international education spending within the country rather than losing it to outbound study.

Student appetite for TNE is growing on a global scale. IDP’s Emerging Futures survey found that 64% of students were considering exchange programmes, up 6 percentage points from last year while 59% were interested in branch campuses, up 7 percentage points. Cost was one of the main reasons for 52% of the cohort choosing TNE as an option, ahead of the 44% who looked for employability and growth opportunities.

The scale at which outbound Chinese students contribute to the global economy through tuition, accommodation and living costs makes China strategically significant for international education providers. In-country partnerships let providers recruit and engage these students without requiring them to relocate.

Asia’s Education Hubs Back Growth With Policy and Capacity

As student mobility shifts gradually towards the region, Asian destinations are well placed to absorb a larger share of international demand, supported by student-friendly policy reforms, expanded capacity and a sustained effort to establish themselves as regional education hubs.

Hong Kong Lifts Non-Local Caps as Enrolment Climbs

A British Council report published in October 2026 showed that Hong Kong had 172,614 higher education students in AY 2024-25, up 12% YoY and 24% higher than AY 2019-20. Non-local students made up 52% of the total, against 41% in AY 2019-20. Mainland Chinese students accounted for 79% of non-local enrolments on University Grants Committee (UGC)-funded programmes in AY 2024-25, up 10 percentage points from 69% in AY 2019-20.

The government has raised the ceiling on non-local enrolment twice in three years. The cap for self-financing non-local students on programmes taught at UGC-funded universities doubled from 20% to 40% of local student places from AY 2024-25. The Chief Executive’s 2025 Policy Address in September 2025, raised it to 50% for AY 2026-27. It also lifted the over-enrolment ceiling for self-financing places on funded research postgraduate programmes from 100% to 120%.

Hong Kong’s first Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030 sets out 3 university towns in the Northern Metropolis covering over 1,000 hectares:

• San Tin: medicine, life and health technology, AI and robotics
• Hung Shui Kiu: applied post-secondary education, smart manufacturing and talent development. Institutions are expected to move in from 2027-28
• Ta Kwu Ling: arts and blue-green development

Upon full development, the Northern Metropolis is planned to house around 2.5 million individuals and provide about 650,000 jobs, based on targets first set in 2021. Rising non-local enrolment, higher caps and planned university capacity point to Hong Kong establishing its role as a major study destination.

Malaysia Targets 250,000 International Students by 2030

Malaysia aims to attract around 250,000 international students by 2030 while diversifying their countries of origin. On 13th October 2026, the country's Higher Education Minister Zambry Abd Kadir said that around 170,000 international students from 180 countries were studying in Malaysia. Hence, reaching the 2030 target would require a growth rate of roughly 47%.

Education Malaysia Global Services (EMGS) application data for Q1-Q3 (January-September) 2026 showed Malaysia’s 5 largest source markets are all in Asia. China led with 25,938 applications, followed by Bangladesh (8,831), Indonesia (5,822), India (3,760) and Pakistan (3,727). Total applications reached 81,101 over the same period, accounting for about 85% of the 95,522 recorded in 2025. At the current rate of roughly 27,000 applications a quarter, the full-year figure is estimated to reach approximately 108,000, around 13% above 2025.

South Korea Hits Foreign Student Target Early

The Korean Council for University Education projects that the number of Koreans of university-entrance age will fall from 460,000 in 2020 to about 280,000 by 2040, a decline of almost 40%. The falling birth rate and a shrinking school-age population threatens the viability of universities.

In response, the government had launched the Study Korea 300K initiative in 2023, targeting 300,000 international students by 2027. The Ministry of Education’s statistics, released in August 2026, put the number of international students at 307,464 as of 1st April 2026, up 21.3% YoY, meeting the target a year ahead of schedule.

Vietnam became the largest source market for the first time in 2026, with 96,834 students or 31.5% of the total. China followed with 78,890 or 25.7%, ahead of Uzbekistan at 6.8%, Nepal at 6.5% and Mongolia at 5.6%.

Seoul ranked first in QS Best Student Cities 2026, ending London’s run of 6 consecutive editions at the top and retained the position in the 2027 edition. The previous year’s rise was attributed to the city’s improved affordability and desirability factors which cover safety and pollution. Along with this, Seoul also maintained a high number of institutions ranked in the QS World University Rankings and performed strongly in terms of Employer Activity.

The Study in Korea portal reported a dormitory accommodation rate of 20.3% in 2025, down from 23.8% in 2024. With coverage falling as recruitment rises, universities are likely to need housing beyond their own residences to support larger international cohorts. For the PBSA sector, this strengthens the case for university-linked accommodation partnerships over development based on enrolment growth alone.

Big Four Easing Opens a New PBSA Frontier in Asia

The gradual realignment in Big Four new applicants, driven by tighter visa thresholds, rising refusal rates and affordability pressure has clear implications for PBSA.

BONARD’s analysis of Q2 (April-June) 2026 student mobility data identifies oversupply and slower rental growth as the near-term risk in cities recently underwritten on aggressive enrolment assumptions. Schemes financed at the top of the cycle in overheated Big Four submarkets deserve a fresh look at absorption timelines.

This does not signal a structural decline in the Big Four which retain established universities and a deep student base. The pressure sits in secondary locations and less competitive schemes where returns are likely to diverge.

International student enrolments across BONARD-monitored destinations in Asia rose by 19% in AY 2024-25 to approximately 650,000. Many of these students are arriving in cities where PBSA supply is considerably less developed than in the mature anglophone markets.

In Singapore, real estate and investment firm Wee Hur Holdings is entering its home market with a project of almost 1,400 beds at NTU. Once completed, it is expected to be the country’s largest privately developed and operated student accommodation facility on an autonomous university campus.

Tracking which combinations of destination and source market are gaining ground will help investors and developers distinguish genuine supply gaps from markets that are already crowded.

(Writing by Lakshmi E M, Editing by Shivani Singh)

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