US Data Reveals an Uneven Decline in International Students

Key Highlights

• Active F-1 and M-1 student records fell to 1.19 million in October 2026, down 7.1% year-on-year (YoY), a decline of roughly 91,000 students, according to the latest government data.
• India and China accounted for 81.8% of that fall, losing 49,365 and 24,881 records respectively.
• The contraction is largely concentrated in master’s programmes; doctoral records have expanded 41% over the past decade.
• State-level outcomes diverged sharply, with master’s-heavy destinations falling fastest and undergraduate and research-weighted states holding up.

The international student market in the US is shrinking, but not every source country is following the same trend. Historically, this market has been shaped by strong demand from India and China but is now seeing a sharp decline in student numbers from both countries. Hence, this has not just changed the composition of the international student population but also their course selection. Notably, this structural shift coincides with recent tightening of the policy environment across other key destination countries including the UK, Australia and Canada.

The latest available figures on the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS) platform, managed by the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), reveal that active student records (F-1 and M-1) fell to 1.19 million in October 2026, down 7.1% from a year ago. India and China drove roughly four-fifths of this decline, with 49,365 and 24,881 fewer student records, respectively.

Recent compliance scrutiny around Curricular Practical Training (CPT) and Optional Practical Training (OPT), along with inflationary pressures and domestic currency fluctuations in key source markets, has altered perceptions of potential returns on investment for a short-term postgraduate degree in the US. Therefore, the contraction in international students is concentrated in professional master’s programmes. Conversely, doctoral enrolments have reached a ten-year high, and STEM disciplines retain nearly two-thirds of all active student records.

At first glance, it does seem like the international student market in the US is experiencing a sharp pullback. However, behind the headline drop lies a more fundamental shift in which students are coming and what courses they are choosing to study. This research note looks at which source markets, programme levels and US states are witnessing these changes, and what the findings could mean for universities preparing for their next recruitment cycle.

Data note: All figures refer to active F-1 and M-1 student records registered on the Department of Homeland Security’s SEVIS platform in October 2026, extracted on 23rd October and analysed by amber’s research team. They represent active student status at a single point in time, not new visa issuances, new admissions or total graduates currently working on OPT.

Most of the Decline Is Led By India and China

The top-line drop is largely driven by India and China, which collectively account for 45% of all active F-1 and M-1 student records in the US. As of October 2026, the two countries saw a combined decrease of 74,246 active student records YoY. 

SEVIS data showed that Indian active student records dropped 13.5% YoY and accounted for 54.4% of the entire net decline. After years of rapid expansion, demand has hit a ceiling as elevated borrowing costs in India, combined with uncertainty over post-study employment opportunities and prospective administrative hurdles surrounding visas have stifled new postgraduate applications.

China was second in line after India, making up 27.4% of the overall drop in international students YoY while all other source markets together accounted for the remaining 18.2%. In other words, over four out of every five active-student records lost in October 2026 came from either India or China. Chinese student numbers are on a downward trend from their pre-pandemic peaks. While Chinese records saw a brief seasonal uptick ahead of the fall cycle arrivals, the broad annual trajectory reflects increased domestic university capacity and intensifying regional competition from East Asian and European destinations.

While other emerging source markets have yielded localised gains, they lack the aggregate volume needed to offset losses in the core markets. Brazil’s small yet noteworthy increase (up 3,731 active students) shows that growth has not entirely disappeared from the US market. However, such gains in smaller markets are incapable of countering losses from India and China. 

Net changes in active SEVIS records should not be treated as direct arrival figures, as they can reflect additions, departures, transfers, status changes and timing effects. Even with this limitation, the latest figures point to sharply different trajectories. The two markets diverged sharply over the fall cycle. India’s active records fell by 16,421 between August and October 2026, even as China’s rose by 22,355, a reversal during the stretch when both countries usually record their peak intake.

Academic Bifurcation: Master’s Exposure vs Doctoral Resilience

The risk profile of the US international student market varies drastically across academic levels. The post-2021 boom in international higher education was predominantly fuelled by master's degrees. Therefore, this current contraction is fundamentally a master’s correction.

Master's programmes represent the most dynamic segment of US international education. Driven by one- or two-year course durations and high sensitivity to post-study work rules (OPT/STEM OPT), this segment expanded rapidly. As of October 2026, there were 462,321 international master’s students in the US, representing 38.8% of all active F-1 and M-1 student records. 

On the other hand, doctoral programmes present a starkly different trajectory, characterised by multi-year stability and steady expansion. Active doctoral records rose from 145,474 in 2016 to 205,184 in October 2026, a 41% increase over the past decade. 

The doctoral growth highlights a critical shift towards research-backed, scholarship-funded and high-skilled talent pipelines. Notably, this growth is uneven across source countries as China remains the largest doctoral source market. India's doctoral base has more than doubled, while South Asian and African markets, specifically Bangladesh, Nigeria and Ghana, have emerged as crucial institutional research engines.

Overall, STEM programmes continue to anchor the US international education sector, accounting for nearly two-thirds (62.9%) of all active F-1 and M-1 records as of October 2026.  The 3-year STEM OPT extension option has been the primary competitive differentiator holding baseline US demand intact relative to alternative study destinations. However, under the recent DHS proposal a school would pay US$70,000 for a student’s first OPT recommendation and US$30,000 for a subsequent STEM extension, against no institutional fees today. If the proposal survives legal challenges, it could severely diminish the US sector's core competitive advantage. 

The long-term growth in doctoral enrolment and continued concentration of students in STEM suggest that the US international education market remains substantial in research-oriented and technical disciplines. However, these figures represent the size and composition of existing enrolment, and are not a clear indicator of new demand or future recruitment outcomes. Administrative interventions impacting pathways to the US workforce will determine whether these segments continue to endure the wider market rejig.

Geographical Realignment: State-level Exposure Is Unequal

The national decline masks considerable variation across US states. Institutional exposure is heavily dictated by regional concentration of master's versus doctoral institutions and the historical source-market mix.

Among the top ten destination states, New York recorded the biggest absolute reduction, with 12,164 fewer active international students this year than in October 2025, an 8% drop. Massachusetts followed with the sharpest proportional decline of 10.9% or 9,375 active records, driven by high concentrations of intensive master's degree programmes. California lost 8,571 records, a relatively mild 5.4% decrease primarily due to its larger proportion of undergraduate enrolments, research-heavy public university systems and high baseline Chinese enrolment. 

At the other end, Florida, Indiana and Virginia recorded the smallest dips among major destinations, at 1.5%, 2.6% and 0.3% YoY respectively. This resilience stemmed from strong institutional focus on undergraduate integration, state-system affordability, and research-focused graduate populations but also a lower overall student base compared to larger states.

The state-level breakdown by origin country also reveals different patterns of exposure. These differences mean that a national contraction in either source market will not affect every destination equally.

In October 2026, Texas hosted 32,248 Indian students compared with 7,390 Chinese students. Texas higher education institutions and regional student housing markets could face larger downside risk if Indian master's demand continues to slow.

California had 26,036 Indian students and 46,675 Chinese students, while New York recorded 30,581 and 37,218 respectively. While institutions in these states are less vulnerable to single-country shocks, they remain exposed to macroeconomic shifts affecting both top-tier markets.

For universities and accommodation stakeholders, understanding these regional differences alongside shifts in source-market composition will be essential to identifying where enrolment pressures are greatest and where demand is holding up better. 

What to Watch Out For

The next SEVIS data releases should help establish whether this decline trend continues and where its impacts are felt most. As the sector analyses the latest figures, stakeholders will monitor the following: 

• Key Source Markets: Whether India's active records stabilise after the fall cycle or will it continue into the Spring term? Will Chinese student enrolment perform better than Indian enrolment, or will the gap between the two markets narrow?
• Degree-Tier Widening: Higher education business models relying heavily on tuition revenue from self-funded, non-STEM terminal master's degrees face structural vulnerability. Will the gap between declining master’s enrolment and long-term growth in doctoral students widen further, and what could this imply for universities’ revenue models?
• Post-Study Policy Impact: Transition rates from academic completion into OPT/STEM OPT employment among 2025/2026 graduating cohorts will be a key indicator. How could changes to the OPT rules and related administrative costs influence future student decisions to study in the US?
• Regional Disparities: Will larger US states experience further declines and will smaller regional destinations prove to be more resilient? 

The October 2026 SEVIS snapshot confirms that the post-pandemic hyper-growth cycle in international mobility has concluded, ushering in an era defined by institutional portfolio rebalancing. While gains in emerging hubs like Brazil cannot immediately replace the large student volumes from India or China, building incremental presence across Southeast Asia, Latin America and West Africa could be a sustainable long-term defence against source-market concentration risk.

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