Visa Declines Eased, Occupancy Held Steady: October 2026 Update

Every month amberRadar tracks student housing demand, pricing and occupancy trends in the UK Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) sector, providing data-driven insights that help stakeholders benchmark performance and make more informed decisions.

Key Takeaways

• Study visa clearances for main applicants (excluding dependants) reached 302,900 YTD as of September 2026, down 19.7% YoY, narrowing from a 22.4% decline recorded at August-end.
• September visa clearances fell 9.9% YoY to 71,600, the mildest monthly decline of 2026 and almost at par with the 72,000 recorded in September 2024.
• Accommodation keyword search volumes reached 2.03 million across January to September 2026, down 29.9% YoY. However, September's decline widened to 29.2%, from 12.5% in August.
• London performed best on searches, down 21% YTD, while Sheffield recorded the steepest decline.
• Against December 2025 launch prices, Premium Studios held 4.5% above launch and stayed above it in nine of the ten cities tracked, while Budget Studio prices were 1.4% lower.
• As the academic year got under way, overall UK booking occupancy stood at 91.8% at October-end, broadly unchanged from 91.9% at September-end.

Watchpoints From the Previous Edition

The narrower declines seen through the summer continued into September. Study visa clearances fell 9.9% YoY, against 19.5% in July and 17.2% in August, making it the first single-digit monthly decline this year.

Birmingham, the only top-10 city below 80% at September-end, rose 1.8 percentage points (pp) to 80.7% in October, crossing the 80% mark for the first time this cycle. Notably, Sheffield moved in the opposite direction, falling 5.2pp to 84%.

While December launch prices for the next cycle aren’t available yet, the tier split narrowed after term start. The gap between Premium and Budget Studios fell to 5.9pp from 7.8 pp at September-end, as Budget Studios recovered to 1.4% below launch from 2.9% below, while Premium Studios held 4.5% above.

Visa Clearance Declines Narrowed to a Single Digit in September

UK study visa clearances for main applicants stood at 302,900 in the year to September 2026, against 377,400 over the same period of 2025, a decline of 19.7%. The year to date (YTD) decline continued to narrow, from 25.9% at July-end and 22.4% at August-end.

So far, 2026 continues to bifurcate into two distinct categories. The first being January to May, when visa clearances fell by an average of 34.4% YoY each month. From June to September, the declines were markedly smaller, and clearances across those four months totalled 253,100 against 301,000 a year earlier, a decline of 15.9%. September 2026 had 71,600 visa clearances against 79,500 in September 2025, a decline of 9.9% YoY, and was down only 0.6% when compared to September 2024.

The conventional peak months carried a larger share of the year than in 2025. July to September accounted for 230,300 clearances, or 76% of the 2026 YTD total, against 72.4% over the same period of 2025. This indicates that the steepest declines came in the first half of the year (down 30.4%), while the main intake months held up comparatively better (down 15.7%).

The quarterly visa series will next be updated on 26th November 2026, when the UK Home Office publishes its immigration statistics for the year ending September, covering Q3 (July-September) 2026. Until then, the Q2 2026 acceptance rate of 88.3% remains the latest checkpoint, against 73.8% in Q1 2026 and 96.6% in Q2 2025.

Search Volume Declines Widened Again in September

UK accommodation-related keyword search volumes reached 2.03 million across January to September 2026, against 2.9 million over the same period of 2025, a decline of 29.9% YTD. It’s worth noting that the 2025 figure was itself 15.9% lower when compared to the same months of 2024.

The narrowing decline in volumes seen through the summer earlier this year did not extend into September. Monthly declines ranged between 32.8% and 37.1% from January to June, before easing to 21.1% in July and 12.5% in August. In September, 228,100 searches were recorded against 322,310 a year earlier, and the decline widened again to 29.2%. Search volumes fell 21.7% month-on-month (MoM) from the August peak, against a 3.2% MoM fall seen in September 2025, suggesting that search activity tailed off more quickly after hitting its peak this year.

As highlighted in the previous amberRadar editions, keyword search volumes measure the visibility of the accommodation channel rather than demand in itself. Discovery is increasingly shifting to AI search tools and chatbots whose queries are not captured in keyword search volumes, so search data can understate the underlying interest. Hence, booking data remains the firmer read on demand trends.

Sheffield Continued to Lead the Fall

In YTD terms, the top five cities by search volume (London, Nottingham, Manchester, Birmingham and Coventry) averaged a 28.7% decline, against a 29.9% drop for the UK overall.

London recorded the smallest YTD decline at 21%, followed by Manchester at 24.8% and Cardiff at 25.1%. London's run of YoY growth in July and August when search volumes were up 23.8% and 24.4%, respectively, reversed in September, when searches were down 31.3%. Manchester recorded the mildest September decline, at 3%, followed by Newcastle at 24.2%.

Sheffield recorded the steepest YTD decline at 44.3%, followed by Birmingham at 35.2% and Newcastle at 35%. Sheffield's September search volumes fell 56.3% YoY, the sharpest monthly decline among the tracked cities, partly reflecting a high comparator base. Search volume for Leeds was down 44% and Liverpool was down 34.9%.

Premium Studios Held Above Launch Prices

Against December 2025 launch prices, the tier split seen through lease-up held after term start, although it narrowed. Premium Studio pricing was 4.5% above launch at October-end and Premium Ensuites were up 2.8%, while Budget Studio prices were down 1.4% and Budget Ensuite options were marginally lower by 0.5%. Mid-tier Studio and Ensuite prices were closer to launch prices, up 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. The gap between Premium and Budget Studios narrowed to 5.9pp, from 7.8 at September-end, as Budget Studios recovered from 2.9% below launch price. The Ensuite pricing gap narrowed to 3.3pp, from 4.0pp in September.

At city level, Premium Studios stayed above launch price in nine of the ten cities, with London down 0.2% being the only exception. Coventry and Manchester recorded the largest increases. Budget Studio prices were below launch in eight of the ten cities, led by Birmingham, Newcastle and Coventry, while Manchester and Nottingham traded 0.7% above. Budget Ensuites were below launch in nine of the ten cities, except Coventry which was up 1%.

Birmingham showed the widest spread within a single city. Its Premium Ensuites were 8.6% above launch, the largest increase in any city and category, while its Budget Studios were 6% lower, the largest Budget Studio fall of the ten. It is the second consecutive month in which Birmingham has paired the strongest Premium Ensuite pricing with the lowest occupancy of the top ten. By contrast, Liverpool and Newcastle, the two most occupied cities, traded below launch in four of six categories each.

On a YoY basis, the tier order broadly reversed, as it has through the cycle. Against October 2025, Budget Ensuites were up 3.8% and Budget Studios 1.4%, Mid-tier Ensuites 2.3% and Studios 0.6%, and Premium Ensuites 1.8%, while Premium Studios were 0.2% lower. YoY growth in the Budget tier slowed from September's reading, when Budget Ensuites were 8.5% and Budget Studios 6.1% above the previous year. At city level, Coventry's Budget Studios (up 13.9%) and Birmingham's Premium Studios (up 13.3%) recorded the largest YoY increases.

At this point in the cycle, these comparisons should be read with some caution. Once the academic term begins, the rooms remaining on the market are no longer representative of the full inventory. A part of the shift in pricing may reflect which rooms remain available rather than rate reductions alone as PBSA operators have cleared out the majority of their inventory.

Occupancy Lead Narrowed as the Academic Year Began

Overall UK booking occupancy stood at 91.8% at October-end, broadly unchanged from 91.9% at September-end and 1pp ahead of the same point in 2025. The lead in occupancy trends has now narrowed for two consecutive months, from 6pp at August-end and 2.1pp at September-end. With term now under way at most UK universities, movement at the country level has largely settled and the changes in October were concentrated at city level. 

In October 2026, Liverpool (98.1%) and Newcastle (97.8%) recorded the highest occupancy, and seven of the ten cities stood above the UK level. On an MoM basis, Leeds recorded the largest gain, up 2.7pp to 93.9%, followed by Birmingham, up 1.8pp to 80.7%, and Liverpool, up 1.0pp. London (up 0.3pp to 93.0%) and Cardiff (unchanged at 93.1%) held steady.

On a YoY basis, occupancy in seven of the ten cities closed October ahead of last year. Newcastle and London held the largest leads, followed by Nottingham, Sheffield and Leeds. Sheffield's lead shrank the most, from 10.4pp at September-end to 3.7pp in October, while Leeds was the only city whose lead widened, from 2.0pp to 3.6pp. Although Birmingham crossed 80% for the first time this cycle, it remained 6.0pp below October 2025 occupancy levels. Birmingham and Sheffield, now the only two cities below 85%, will be the clearest test of how much of the remaining unlet capacity is filled during the rest of the term.

When read alongside the demand signals, the market had entered the academic year ahead of 2025 even as visa clearances were 19.7% lower YTD and keyword search volumes 29.9% lower. However, the lead has narrowed in each month since August, which reinforces the reading from the September edition: much of the 2026 advantage reflected students committing earlier, rather than additional demand. The relatively flat October also suggests fewer late bookings arrived after term start this year than last. Any declines in individual cities either point to cancellations or students not taking up their rooms.

What We Are Watching in November

• Quarterly visa data: The Home Office data release for the quarter ending September is due in late November. This will show whether the acceptance rate managed to continue its recovery from 73.8% in Q1 2026 and 88.3% in Q2 or not.
• October visa clearances: Historically, October is a low-volume month, with 8,300 clearances registered in 2025. The monthly release will show whether September's single-digit decline holds after the peak intake period as well.
• Sheffield and Coventry occupancy: We will track whether the October declines in both cities stabilise or further extend into November.
• Trends ahead of December launch prices: With Premium Studios holding above launch in nine of ten cities and Budget Studios below in eight, we will closely watch for early signs of how PBSA operators set AY 2027-28 launch prices across tiers.

Source: amberRadar data, GOV.UK

(Written by Shivani Singh)

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